What data changes will affect the foreign exchange market?
1, the United States trend
US Although there is no stability like gold, but it is much better than the liquidity of gold. Therefore, beauty is considered the first type of money, and gold is the second category. When the international political situation is tense, people will buy gold because they expect gold prices to rise. But the most money left in your hands is real-time. If the country needs to buy weapons or other supplies from other countries during the war, it will also hollow out the gold in its hands in exchange for beauty. Therefore, in the period of political instability, the United States may not rise, but also depends on the trend of the United States. To put it simply, the US gold is weak; the gold is weak. Usually, when an investor saves the capital, the gold will be beautiful, and the beauty will be gold. Although gold is not a legal currency, it always has its value and will not depreciate into scrap iron. If the US trend is strong and the investment appreciation is big, people will naturally chase the beauty. On the contrary, when the US is weaker in the foreign exchange field, the price of gold will be stronger.
2. War and political turbulence period
During the war and political turmoil, economic development will receive great restrictions. Any local currency is likely to depreciate due to inflation. At this time, the importance of gold has been fully exerted. Because of its recognized identity and the internationally recognized trading medium, people are turning their targets to gold at this moment. The snapping of gold will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of gold. But there are other factors that are common constraints. For example, between the years 89 and 1992, there were many political turmoil and sporadic wars in the world, but the price of gold did not rise. The reason was that they held US dollars and abandoned gold. Therefore, investors should not mechanically apply war-torn factors to predict gold prices, but also consider other factors such as the United States.
3. The world financial crisis
If there is a bankruptcy of a world-class bank, what reaction will the gold price have?
In fact, this situation arises because of the crisis. People naturally keep money in their hands, and banks will have a lot of runs or bankruptcies. The situation is like the Argentine economic crisis, which has to be exchanged from the bank, and the state has banned the exchange of the United States in order to retain the last investment opportunity, which has caused constant riots and panic. When the financial system of the Western powers is unstable, the world's funds will be invested in gold, and the demand for gold will increase, and the price of gold will rise. At this time, gold played the role of a financial refuge. Only when the financial system is stable, the confidence of investors in gold will be greatly reduced, and the gold price will fall.
We know that the purchasing power of a country's currency is determined based on the price index. When a country's prices are stable, the purchasing power of its currency becomes more stable. Conversely, the higher the currency rate, the weaker the purchasing power of the currency, and the less attractive the currency is. If the price index with the major regions of the world remains stable, cash holdings will not depreciate and interest will become the first choice for investors.
On the contrary, if the inflation is fierce, there is no guarantee of holding cash, and the interest rate cannot catch up with the sharp rise in prices. People buy gold because the theoretical price of gold rises with inflation. The higher the inflation in the major western countries, the greater the demand for gold to maintain value, and the higher the world gold price. Among them, the inflation rate is the easiest to change the change of gold. In some smaller countries, such as intelligence and Uruguay, the annual inflation rate can reach 400 times, but it has no effect on the price of gold.
5, the price of oil
Gold itself is a hedge under the inflation, and the inflation is inseparable. The rise in oil prices means that inflation will follow, and gold prices will rise.
6. Local interest rate
Investment in gold will not receive interest, and the profit of its investment will increase by price. When the interest rate is low, under the measurement, investment in gold will have certain benefits; but when the interest rate rises, the interest rate will be more attractive, and the investment value of the non-interest gold will fall. Since the opportunity cost of gold investment is large, It would be better to place interest on the bank to be more stable and reliable. In particular, when interest rates rise, the United States will be absorbed a lot, and the price of gold will be frustrated.
Interest rates are closely related to gold. If the interest rate in the country is high, it is necessary to consider whether it is worthwhile to lose interest to buy gold.
7. Gold supply and demand relationship
Gold price is based on the relationship between supply and demand. If the output of gold increases substantially, the price of gold will be affected and fall back. However, if there is a long-term strike by miners and other reasons, the output will stop increasing, and the price of gold will rise in the case of oversupply. In addition, the application of new gold mining technology and the discovery of new mines have all increased the supply of gold. Of course, the price will cause the price of gold to fall. A place may also have the habit of investing in gold. For example, the gold investment boom in Japan has to be greatly increased, and it has also led to a steadily rising price.
There are many aspects to the fundamental analysis of gold trends. When we are using these factors, we should consider how strong their respective roles are. Find the primary and secondary status and impact time period for each factor to make the best investment decisions.
The basic analysis of gold is divided into short-term (usually three months) factors and long-term factors over time. We have to deal with their effects separately.
8. Economic situation
The economy is thriving, people's lives will naturally enhance people's desire to invest, and the ability of folks to buy gold for value preservation or decoration will increase greatly, and gold prices will receive certain support. On the contrary, the people are not happy. During the economic depression, people can't even satisfy the basic guarantees of eating and dressing. Where else will there be interest in gold investment? The price of gold will inevitably fall. The economic situation is also a factor in the fluctuation of gold prices.